What are we to make of the dozens of secret American Defense Department documents—including maps, charts, and pictures—that are already floating online?

The documents, some of which are designated “top secret,” provide a thorough account of the conflict in Ukraine, complete with timeframes and a bewildering array of military terminology.

They describe the deaths sustained by both sides, their respective military weaknesses, and—most importantly—what their likely relative strengths will be when Ukraine decides to start its eagerly awaited spring onslaught.

How authentic are these pictured, unfolded printed papers that may have been on someone’s dining room table? And what new information do they impart to the Kremlin or to us?

First things first: since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 14 months ago, this leak of classified American information about the conflict there is the largest. Even though some of the documents are more than six weeks old, they have significant ramifications.

According to sources from the Pentagon, the documents are authentic.

Out of a dump of up to 100 documents, information on at least one of them appears to have been hastily edited in a subsequent version, although that looks like a rather minor detail.

More than 20 of the documents have been seen by the BBC. They provide in-depth descriptions of the instruction and supplies being sent to Ukraine as it assembles a dozen new brigades for an operation that could start in a matter of weeks.

The brigades’ readiness dates are specified, and a complete inventory of the tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces that Ukraine’s Western allies are supplying is provided.

It does, however, mention that “equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness.”

A “mud-frozen ground timeline” on one map illustrates how the terrain is changing as spring advances over eastern Ukraine.

There is a depressing appraisal of Kyiv’s declining air defense strength as it tries to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, vital infrastructure, and its frontline troops after a winter that has stretched Ukraine’s air defenses to the breaking point.

The released documents talk extensively on the military situation in Ukraine as well as some of Washington’s other partners. The documents show internal disagreements regarding Ukraine and other delicate topics in countries ranging from Israel to South Korea.

The documents range from top secret to those that should only be disclosed with the closest intelligence allies of the United States.

What portion of this is new?

A lot of the information is well known. Simply said, there is a lot more of it in one location.

Take the casualty rates. The US’s claim that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian servicemen have been killed or injured should come as no surprise.

Between 124,500 and 131,000 is the corresponding amount for Ukraine’s losses, which is also in line with the rough numbers provided to journalists in recent weeks.

Due to informational gaps, operational security concerns, and purposeful deception attempts—probably made by both sides—the Pentagon declares that it has “low confidence” in the figures in both situations.

It is interesting to note that this is the only area where attempts have been made to change the documents to make it appear as though Ukraine is suffering the most casualties.

A version that surfaced on a pro-Russian Telegram site flipped the figures on the Ukrainian side so they read “61k – 71.5k” and put the number of Ukrainians “killed in action” (16k-17.5k) on the Russian ledger.

The question of who leaked the materials and why arises in light of all of this.

“Please find some leaked documents here.”
Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence organization Bellingcat has already described how the documents made their way from the messaging app Discord to 4Chan and Telegram.

Toler notes that it has not yet been feasible to identify the leaks’ original source but notes that they first appeared on a chat service used by gamers in early March.

On March 4, a member who frequently participated in debates on a Discord server used by Minecraft players stated, “Here, have some leaked documents,” before submitting ten of them.

Although uncommon, it is not a very rare type of leak.

Documents pertaining to US-UK economic relations surfaced on Reddit, 4Chan, and other websites in 2019, prior to the UK general election.

Reddit said at the time that the documents’ provenance was Russia.

Another incident occurred last year when War Thunder gamers regularly disclosed private military documents, ostensibly in an effort to settle a dispute among themselves.

The most recent disclosure is more harmful and sensitive.

The appearance of such sensitive information at such a crucial time cannot be welcomed by Ukraine, which has carefully protected its “operational security.”

For the Zelensky administration, the spring push by Ukraine might be a make-or-break opportunity to change the battlefield’s dynamics and provide the framework for future peace negotiations.

Officials in Kyiv have discussed the possibility of a Russian disinformation effort.

Contrarily, other military bloggers have asserted that everything is a part of a Western scheme to deceive Russian leaders.

Importantly, nothing in the documents that have leaked so far indicates the focus or direction of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Although Moscow’s intelligence failures have been prominent throughout the war, the Kremlin should already have a good idea of the extent of Ukraine’s preparations. However, Kyiv needs to keep its adversary guessing about how the campaign will unfold in order to increase the likelihood of success.

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