Sanna Marin was defeated in a close race by Finland’s conservatives

Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s conservative party, has won a three-way election victory over Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s center-left coalition.

“We got the biggest mandate,” said the National Coalition Party’s leader, following a dramatic night in which the result gradually shifted away from Ms Marin’s Social Democrats.

Mr. Orpo received 20.8% of the vote, beating out the right-wing populist Finns Party and the center-left.

The populists received a record 20.1% of the vote.

Ms Marin suffered a crushing defeat despite increasing her party’s seats and receiving 19.9% of the vote.

She maintains high poll ratings and has been widely praised for steering Finland toward Nato membership and guiding her country through the Covid-19 pandemic.

The centre-left leader conceded the election shortly after the conservative leader declared victory.

“Congratulations to the winner of the elections, the National Coalition Party, and the Finns Party; democracy has spoken,” she told supporters.

For weeks, the three parties were almost evenly matched in the polls, and as the results came in, it became too close to call. Then, according to a projection from public broadcaster YLE, Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition won the most seats in parliament.

“I believe the Finnish people want change, and now I will begin negotiations, open negotiations with all parties,” he said.

According to Matti Koivisto, political correspondent for public broadcaster YLE, there was a sense of euphoria in the camp. “When they saw the projection, they knew they were going to win.”

Finns Party leader Riikka Purra congratulated her centre-right opponent and expressed delight at her party’s best result in its history.

“We’re still vying for first place, but seven more seats is an excellent result.”

The Finns demonstrated their dominance by winning more regions than any other party on the Finnish mainland. Riikka Purra received the most votes of any candidate, and commentators emphasized her party’s appeal to young voters through social media platforms such as TikTok.

Meanwhile, three other parties in the outgoing coalition, the Centre Party, the Left Alliance, and the Greens, all suffered significant losses.

Sanna Marin, now 37, became the world’s youngest leader when she entered politics in 2019. She led a coalition of five female-led parties.

Despite her successful response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the election was largely fought over Finland’s economy and public debt, with all mainstream parties supporting Nato membership.

Many Finns regard her as a divisive figure. She came under fire last year after a video of her singing, dancing, and drinking at a party surfaced. Supporters claimed that the controversy was rife with sexism, and women from all over the world shared videos of themselves dancing in solidarity.

Petteri Orpo, on the other hand, lacks Sanna Marin’s “rock-star” qualities, according to YLE’s Matti Koivisto.

“He’s a career politician; he’s been in the game since the 1990s, and he’s quite stable and calm; some say he’s too dull and calm, but it works quite well in Finland.”

The conservatives will have the first chance to form a government, and if they do, Mr Orpo, 53, will become the next prime minister.

Europe could expect a pro-European conservative from his party’s liberal center, with an emphasis on economic policy, under an Orpo-led government.

“A sort of dream son-in-law,” says Vesa Vares, professor of contemporary history at the University of Turku. “Less exciting than Sanna Marin and very moderate.”

To run the country under Finland’s proportional representation system, he will need to secure more than 100 seats in the 200-seat parliament, which will be difficult.

Mr. Orpo has two options: form a right-wing coalition with Riikka Purra’s nationalist Finns Party or reach an agreement with Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats.

“The Finns are a very difficult partner because they are so inexperienced and have MPs who are dissatisfied with almost everything,” Prof Vares says.

“The most natural thing would be to work with the Social Democrats, but [Sanna Marin] used to be on the left wing of her party, and it’s clear she doesn’t like the conservatives.”

Jenni Karimaki, a political scientist at the University of Helsinki, also notes that Ms Marin has been reluctant to state her goals.

The Social Democrats are conflicted, she says, because despite increasing their parliamentary seats, they were unable to become the largest party and retain their premiership.

“However, Finnish political culture is known for its adaptability, for its ability to negotiate and form compromises.”